What is the space object with a possible reentry to Earth?

There is a space object that may be related to Cosmos 482 (identified by NORAD code 6073), launched in 1972 by the former Soviet Union, which is being monitored by the Saipher SPACE division, thanks to the technological solutions developed by the company over the past four years (read more below). The orbital decay and the possible reentry of this object are expected to occur in the coming days and have attracted public attention — not due to actual risk, but because of its potential connection to a former Soviet artifact.

Originally designed to transport an interplanetary probe to Venus’ atmosphere, the object would not have succeeded in escaping Earth’s orbit due to failures attributed to its propulsion system.

Since then, five large fragments have been associated with the launch of Cosmos 482. There is evidence that one of these objects is currently in low Earth orbit and may correspond to the probe’s main module, whose structural robustness was likely designed to withstand extreme conditions such as those found in the Venusian atmosphere. According to specialized sites such as Space.com, the reentry is estimated to occur between the end of the first and the beginning of the second week of May 2025, with a time uncertainty margin of approximately one week.

Based on orbital data updated through 04/29/2025, Saipher’s estimate for reentry is around 20:00 (UTC) on May 8, with a margin of error of ±3.6 days. According to analyses carried out by the scientific team at Saipher SPACE, led by Drs. Wagner Mahler and Jhonathan Murcia, the estimated probability of reentry starting over Brazilian territory is less than 4.1%. Approximately 60% of simulations indicate a possible reentry over a region spanning from the Indian Ocean to the northern Pacific Ocean.

If it is confirmed that the object is indeed this probe, it has structural characteristics that could allow parts to survive atmospheric reentry and potentially reach the Earth's surface. Even in such a scenario, the risk of ground impact is considered very low (1 in 10,000). The predicted latitudinal band for a potential impact ranges between 52° North and 52° South, which includes Brazilian territory and airspace. Other common objects, such as satellites, do not possess the same structural resilience under the harsh conditions of reentry and would therefore completely disintegrate in the atmosphere, leaving no fragments to reach the ground or sea.

The case of Cosmos 482 allows for technical comparisons with other orbiting objects of similar resilience, such as the YF-20 engine, used in Long March launch vehicles from China. Both have high mechanical and thermal resistance. Although the object’s orientation (attitude) during

reentry is not known, whenever an aerodynamically stable configuration is considered as a working hypothesis, the chances of partial structural survival to ground level increase.

Saipher SPACE is monitoring the event through the HORUS SUITE platform — a national solution for orbital object monitoring and mission and control center management. Its HORUS REENTRY module provides orbital decay forecasts and estimates the object’s reentry window. In conjunction with HORUS COSMOS, which employs optical sensors and radar for active tracking, trajectory estimates can be further refined — including potential identification of the object’s nature, should additional data be confirmed.

Saipher will continue to monitor the orbital behavior of the possible Cosmos 482 in the next updates.

And you? Are you interested in space-related topics? What is your perspective on the potential risks associated with the reentry of objects with high structural robustness?

Let’s talk. #SaipherSPACE