NORAD 6073 may reenter between May 9 and 10

Updated data indicate that the object tracked under NORAD ID 6073 has a high probability of beginning reentry between the early hours of May 9 and the evening of May 10. Currently, the closest point of its orbit (perigee) is located in the Northern Hemisphere, which increases the likelihood of reentry occurring in that region of the planet. Although the probability of reentry occurring over Brazilian territory is lower than 2.7%, it cannot be entirely ruled out.

Reentry simulations involving a sphere with the same estimated size and mass as the object (as reported by updated NASA and ESA tracking data) suggest that, should the artifact survive atmospheric reentry, it would take approximately one hour from atmospheric entry to impact on the Earth’s surface. The object would enter the atmosphere at hypersonic speeds and be gradually slowed down by air resistance, reaching subsonic speeds at around 20 km altitude. Upon impact, it would be traveling at approximately 60 m/s — the equivalent energy of a bus moving at over 100 km/h.

Due to intense friction with the atmosphere, the passage of an object with these characteristics would likely be visible between 20 and 60 km of altitude and may generate sounds comparable to those of a jet engine. If any debris is found, authorities should be contacted immediately and the area avoided, as the object’s material composition is unknown and may be highly polluting or hazardous to human health.

It is important to highlight that both the orbital decay and the reentry process of this object are uncontrolled, meaning it is not possible to predict the impact location with precision. In recent years, the number of reentries involving space objects has increased significantly, driven by the growth of space missions and the expansion of commercial activity in orbit. Reentry alerts are expected to become even more frequent in the coming years. In this context, Saipher positions itself strategically by offering monitoring and tracking solutions for objects in reentry phases. At present, there are no systems in place to directly protect the population from the impact of such artifacts — only monitoring and forecasting mechanisms.

To reduce uncertainties in future reentry predictions, it is essential to have a broad sensor network capable of increasing the volume of observational data and enabling continuous tracking of the object. Currently, only a few specialized portals provide limited and often delayed data, which hinders timely communication and compromises decision-making. It is also worth noting that, so far, no country or company has claimed responsibility for the object, nor have official data been released confirming its current condition or providing technical details that could improve forecast accuracy. By Wagner Mahler

Jhonathan Murcia

Additional information available at:

https://reentry.esoc.esa.int/home/blog/cosmos-482-reentryhttps://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/spacecraft/display.action?id=1972-023A&embed=true